
The Indian Agriculture Ministry identified 21 farm products, including soybeans, honey and potatoes, where Indian exports could gain share if countries restrict Chinese goods during the COVID-19 outbreak. China's global exports of these products totalled $5.49 billion in 2018 versus India's $4.45 billion.
Possible diversion of demand toward Indian soybeans could modestly support soybean export flows, though the effect depends on whether importers actually impose restrictions.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.