OPEC agrees 1.5m b/d output cut - but compliance will be key

After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Jul 2, 2019OPEC+ aims for balance as it rolls over output curbs | Wood Mackenzie-0.9%
• Feb 7, 2019MEED | Opec+ agrees to extend oil output cuts till March 2020+1.6%
• Jun 30, 2019OPEC+ set for rollover but risk clouds supply outlook | Wood Mackenzie-4.2%
• Dec 1, 2017OPEC opts to extend production cuts | Wood Mackenzie-2.0%
• Dec 1, 2017Mexico agrees to continue output cut in line with OPEC - BNamericas-2.0%

After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Feb 7, 2019MEED | Opec+ agrees to extend oil output cuts till March 2020-0.2%
• Jun 30, 2019OPEC+ set for rollover but risk clouds supply outlook | Wood Mackenzie-1.4%
• Dec 1, 2017OPEC opts to extend production cuts | Wood Mackenzie-1.5%
• Dec 1, 2017Mexico agrees to continue output cut in line with OPEC - BNamericas-1.5%
• Nov 30, 2016OPEC agrees first output cut since 2008, details unclear+12.5%