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Analysts said lower crude prices will give the rupee some relief, but capital market outflows are likely to have a larger effect during risk-averse periods. They also noted that offshore one-month USD/INR forwards have traded well above onshore levels, and that thin liquidity has exaggerated price moves.
Currency swings from thin liquidity and foreign outflows affect the dollar cost of Indian imports. Lower oil prices partly offset that pressure, so the net effect on USD/INR is mixed.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.