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A preview of the April 30 ECB decision lists scenarios for EUR/USD depending on whether the ECB keeps policy unchanged, buys fallen-angel bonds, extends LTRO, or enlarges the PEPP. The article projects EUR/USD moves from 1.0765 to near 1.10 depending on the outcome.
The euro's direction against the dollar moves the relative competitiveness of US grain and oilseed exports and dollar-based commodity prices. The scenarios are conditional and do not themselves move feed markets.
fbs.euApr 30, 2020After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
