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Cross-currency basis swap rates that were deeply negative in mid-March have reversed to unusually high positive levels. This indicates that dollar funding strains have eased in international markets after an acute shortage.
Easing dollar funding stress reduces the safe-haven bid for the dollar, which can support dollar-priced commodities and help importers keep financing trade. The market effect is indirect and gradual.
wsj.comPaul J. Davies and Caitlin OstroffApr 3, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
