The April WASDE cut 2019-20 US wheat exports to 985 million bushels and reduced domestic use, leaving ending stocks at 970 million bushels. The season-average farm price was raised five cents to $4.60 a bushel.
USDA also reported Russia imposed wheat export restrictions and global trade was lower.
A higher season-average price and global trade restrictions support wheat values even with larger US carryout. Reduced export competitiveness may limit US sales to importers.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.