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A CSIRO article summarizes research in Nature Food finding that global trade can cushion African swine fever shocks by reallocating feed and boosting substitute meats. It cites about 200 million pigs lost in China and estimates that a quarter of the world's pig population could be lost.
Pork prices in China are at record highs.
Trade reallocating feed supplies to pork production outside China would support demand for grain and meal exports, while substitution toward beef and poultry lifts those proteins.
csiro.auCSIROApr 18, 2020After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
