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Nearby US maize futures are testing resistance near $3 a bushel. US daily ethanol output fell from over 1,000k barrels a day in March to 537k by the week of 24 April, and Chicago maize futures are down more than 17% since early March.
Ethanol stocks have begun to draw down, but remain elevated.
Lower ethanol grind removes a large share of corn demand, which keeps pressure on prices. The early signs of a stock drawdown could limit further downside.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.