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ABARES export data show China has historically bought around 4.5 million tonnes of Australian barley per season, far more than any other market. Analysts say alternative buyers such as Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea cannot absorb comparable volumes.
Losing the Chinese market under the new tariff leaves a large volume of barley needing new buyers, which is bearish for Australian barley prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.