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Low water on the Parana River, which drains southeastern Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina, has reached record lows at Rosario, the lowest in over 50 years and lowest ever for April. Barges carrying soybeans and corn have been trapped and forced to light-load, with grain exporters losing an estimated $244 million by mid-May.
Slower river loadings raise freight costs and delay Argentine soymeal, soyoil and corn exports, tightening nearby supply and supporting export basis and meal prices.
hpj.comDavid MurrayJun 13, 2020After 167 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.9%), and -1.2% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
