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USDA FAS forecasts Australian barley exports for 2020-21 at 3.8Mt, up from 3.2Mt, with new-crop production at 9.8Mt. China's five-year 80.5% tariff on Australian barley is expected to shift more supply into feed use.
Higher Australian barley exports and feed use add to world feed barley supply, but China's tariff limits its demand, which is bearish for barley prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.