India issued its seventh urea tender of 2020 on August 18, closing August 26 with October 5 shipment. The east-coast tender price rose from $240.5/t to $290.5/t, a $50/t increase.
Chinese domestic urea spot prices kept falling, except in Inner Mongolia, because of port handling problems.
Strong Indian import demand supports global urea prices, while weak Chinese domestic prices and port delays limit export supply. The net effect is firm nitrogen prices for feed-crop input costs.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.