
Milk futures rallied about $10 from mid-April to mid-July on government cheese buying, but the rally has stalled after those support programs paused. Cheese and block prices have fallen sharply, with blocks averaging $1.630/lb versus about $2.70 a month earlier.
USDA reported July milk production up 1.5 percent year over year, with more cows on farms.
Heavy milk supply and weaker cheese demand point to lower dairy prices, which reduces the value of dairy by-products and affects dairy-based feed ingredient demand. Buyers should expect softer milk price levels unless demand recovers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.