
The USDA reported domestic rough rice stocks in all positions on August 1 were 24.395 million cwt, down 37% from a year earlier. Milled rice stocks were 2.987 million cwt, down 32%, and the next supply and demand estimates are due September 11.
Stocks at this level are much tighter than a year ago, which supports rice prices until the large new crop arrives. The market will watch the September WASDE for any change to the carryout.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.