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The Environmental Working Group argues that another $20 billion in COVID-19 farm aid could push 2020 federal farm spending above $50 billion. It says 2019 payments of about $34 billion, including $14.5 billion in trade-war aid, already exceeded the WTO cap.
Expanded payments raise the risk of WTO challenges that could affect US export policy. Their effect on grain prices is indirect, since support sustains production without changing near-term supply.
ewg.orgJared Hayes (EWGAug 6, 2020After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
