Rural Bank expects Australia's winter crop to rise 45 per cent year-on-year, with NSW output up 190 per cent offsetting risks from warm, dry weather in WA and SA. Wheat and barley bulk stocks in WA and SA are expected to fall below one million tonnes by end-August.
Expected domestic feed demand decline and a larger exportable surplus point to lower Australian wheat prices, with Rural Bank forecasting a 10-20 per cent fall.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.