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Rabobank says Australia's barley crop is forecast above 10 million tonnes, leaving about 6.5 million tonnes of surplus after domestic use. China's 80.5 per cent tariff on Australian barley means that volume must find new export markets, with Middle Eastern buyers an option.
Losing China as a barley buyer forces Australian surplus into other markets, which weighs on export prices and global barley values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.