DAP prices at New Orleans rose about 4% after at least 30,000 short tons sold for re-export to a major Latin American distributor. Roughly 170,000t of DAP arrived at Nola in February, including 132,000t of Saudi DAP last week.
Market participants expect Saudi supply to tighten because cargoes must transit the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Re-export demand and Gulf shipping risk tighten US phosphate supply, supporting higher DAP and MAP prices for feed-phosphate and grain-input costs. Possible demand destruction from weak grower affordability could cap gains.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.