
Gapki expects Indonesian palm oil exports to fall 18% year on year to 24.92 million tons in 2020 as the EU, China and India are hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Domestic consumption is forecast to rise 1.2% to 15.8 million tons, driven by the B30 biodiesel programme.
The association says biodiesel cannot be exported this year.
Lower export volumes add supply to the world market and weigh on palm prices, while B30 absorbs domestic output and limits how far that bearishness can run.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.