
An NGI interview with analyst Nikos Tsafos says the LNG market faces continued volatility and oversupply, with gas in storage in Europe and the US likely to weigh on prices into 2021. He expects storage depletion over winter to set the tone for next summer.
Expectations of oversupply and high storage are bearish for gas prices, which in turn lowers energy and nitrogen fertilizer input costs over the medium term. The view is opinion rather than a new supply event.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.