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Capesize rates remain under pressure after an early October spike to near $35,000 per day proved to be a short squeeze rather than a durable imbalance. Panamax and supramax vessels are stuck in narrow ranges despite robust US Gulf grain exports, and the author notes spot rates historically bottom before US Thanksgiving.
Persistently weak dry bulk rates keep ocean freight costs low for grain exporters, though a seasonal bottom could support modest freight recovery into late November.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.