StoneX analyst Kyle Schrad says dairy has been the most volatile commodity in 2020, with Class III prices falling to near record lows at the pandemic's start before rallying to records on food box buying. He expects volatility to persist through year-end and says the government program may end after the election.
He forecasts cheese and butter prices to fall while whey and nonfat dry milk rise, with US milk output up 1.5% in 2021.
A possible end to government dairy buying combined with rising US milk output points to softer cheese and butter prices, which can weigh on milk values and dairy-linked feed demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.