
Oil's rally, driven by vaccine optimism, is losing momentum after Brent hit a nine-month high of $52.48 a barrel last week. Brent gave back as much as 4% on Monday, and U.S. crude slipped after exceeding $49.
Much of the vaccine-driven energy rally appears to be priced in, which points to softer crude and weaker support for biofuel feedstock demand. Lower energy costs can ease pressure on vegetable oil prices.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.