Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine and Russia have risen 70-80% year on year as poor yields cut harvests to about 13 million tonnes each, down from 15.5 million. Exporters have stepped up purchases despite high export duties, and Ukrainian and Russian shipments to Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey rose sharply.
Russia plans to raise its sunflower seed export duty to 30% from 1 January.
Tight Black Sea supply and firm vegetable oil prices keep sunflower meal and oil expensive for feed and oil buyers. The planned Russian export duty increase could tighten supply further in early 2021.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.