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Christopher Joye argues the Australian dollar would be stronger without Reserve Bank of Australia policy, and he flags the risk of a Taiwan conflict with China as the largest left-tail risk. He also notes the RBA faces other challenges, including a strong labour market.
A Taiwan conflict would threaten Australian exports of iron ore, coal and gas to China, a major geopolitical risk for commodity flows. For feed markets this is a distant scenario with no current price effect.
livewiremarkets.comChristopher JoyeJan 29, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
