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Lean hog futures trended lower over the prior two weeks before a rebound on January 21, and the February contract traded at a premium to the CME lean hog index. China reported an African swine fever outbreak on a farm with 1,015 pigs in Guangdong province.
Expected cuts in Chinese pork imports as China rebuilds its herd could weigh on US export demand. A new ASF outbreak in China could support import demand later in the year, so the net effect on hog prices is mixed.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.