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Class III futures climbed above $20.00, reaching $20.08, after USDA announced a fifth Food Box purchasing round of $1.5 billion. Block cheese rallied 34.5 cents over five sessions, and U.S. dairy exports were up over 11% through November before a November decline.
Government purchases are propping up cheese and milk prices despite heavy production. Analysts warn that without this demand, futures face a correction.
After 17 past bullish policy events, MILK moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (29% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.2%), and -3.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.