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Analysis of US dairy markets finds that cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices, which set the federal milk formula, are largely driven by inventory levels. Twelve-month averages through November 2020 are used to show the trend, and COVID-related spikes in March and April 2020 are treated as one-time effects.
Inventory levels for the four formula commodities determine the milk price, so tracking stocks gives a read on where milk prices and dairy income are heading.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.