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A Reuters column argues the US may need to look beyond 2022 to resolve historic tightness in soybean supply. It notes that raising carryout levels meaningfully depends on Chinese demand, disease control, US summer weather and corn prices.
Multi-year tightness expectations support deferred soybean futures and keep old-crop and new-crop spreads firm. Buyers should expect limited relief in supply and continued price support.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.