The February 2021 Crop Monitor for Early Warning reports favourable harvests in West Africa and parts of East Africa, with reduced outputs in areas hit by drought, locusts and flooding. Concern persists over dry winter wheat conditions in North Africa and conflict-affected areas in Syria and Libya.
Localized shortfalls in North African wheat may modestly increase import demand, a minor supportive factor for global wheat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.