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USDA APHIS held a February 2 webinar on HPAI spread in Europe and East Asia and updated on US wild bird surveillance, which will collect over 6,000 samples this winter. Current surveillance shows no H5 prevalence in US wild birds, with normal background levels of H7 low-pathogenic strains.
No US HPAI detections in wild birds mean no immediate threat to US poultry supply, so price impact is limited, though a US outbreak would quickly hit egg and chicken supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.