Ukraine's grain export revenue totaled $11.7 billion in 2020, about 24% of its export earnings. Ukraine expects to cut grain exports 17% in 2020/21 because of a smaller crop, and drought in 2020 lowered stocks, which has changed grain prices and transport tariffs.
A 17% cut in Ukrainian grain exports removes supply from world markets, supporting wheat and corn prices and raising the cost of rail transport to ports.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.