
Indonesia's composite stock index fell below 6,000 and the rupiah weakened to 14,500 per dollar on March 31 after margin calls at Archegos Capital raised fears of systemic spillover to Nomura and Credit Suisse. Investors shifted into safe-haven dollars.
Risk-off flows strengthen the dollar and weaken the rupiah, raising the local-currency cost of dollar-priced feed imports, though the effect on grain prices is indirect.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.