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Breakwave Advisors notes that Chinese imports of U.S. goods under the Phase One deal reached $99.9 billion in 2020 against $159 billion implied, and farm purchases hit only 64% of the $36.6 billion target. The incoming Biden administration and USTR Katherine Tai have pledged to hold China to its obligations.
Shortfalls against the deal leave room for further Chinese purchase pressure on U.S. farm exports, but a firm enforcement stance adds uncertainty about future trade flows.
breakwaveadvisors.comOcean AnalyticsMar 4, 2021After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
