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Spot premiums for Brazil's Tupi crude delivered to China in May fell to 10 cents a barrel over ICE Brent before recovering to 30-40 cents. The drop reflects China's heavy buying of discounted Iranian oil displacing Brazilian and Angolan barrels.
Shifts in Chinese crude sourcing affect Brazilian export flows and regional oil pricing, with limited direct impact on feed commodities.
After 12 past neutral trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.2% to +4.6%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.