
Oil prices fell more than 10% as a new coronavirus strain raised fears of renewed lockdowns and a slower demand recovery. WTI dropped below $70 a barrel and Brent slid below $75.
The sell-off came days after a coordinated release of strategic crude stocks by major consumers.
Concern that lockdowns will slow fuel demand, alongside OPEC+ deciding whether to add supply, points to lower crude prices.
After 32 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -5.2% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -15.0% to -2.4%), and -5.7% over 20.
After 26 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -6.0% over 5 sessions (15% higher; middle half -13.3% to -2.0%), and -6.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Attributes the over-10% drop to fears of renewed lockdowns and a slower demand recovery, with the earlier reserve release adding to the bearish backdrop.
Fears of renewed lockdowns and slower demand recovery sent Brent below $75, coinciding with the strategic reserve releases adding supply.
Fears of renewed lockdowns and slower demand recovery, on top of reserve releases, drove the crash.