Urea prices rose by double-digit percentages across all regions in the week to July 27, 2023, as sellers pushed prices higher ahead of an Indian tender seeking about 1 million tonnes, closing 9 August. Early indications pointed to a price near $420/t CFR India, about $140/t above the June tender.
Phosphate and potash prices were broadly stable, with the stronger rand limiting South African rand-denominated gains.
A large Indian tender and possible Chinese export restrictions point to continued upward pressure on nitrogen prices. Higher fertilizer costs feed into grain production economics, while the stable phosphate and potash prices limit broader input inflation.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 36 past neutral trade events, DAP moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.0% to +2.1%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Double-digit weekly urea price gains globally as sellers pushed prices ahead of an Indian tender for ~1 Mt closing 9 August, a direct demand and trade-flow driver of the move.
Double-digit urea price gains in the week to July 27 as sellers priced ahead of an Indian tender for about 1 Mt, indicated about $140/t above the June tender, which directly explains the move through demand and sentiment.
Double-digit urea price gains across all regions in the week to July 27, driven by sellers pricing ahead of an Indian tender for ~1 Mt, directly explains the one-day jump.
Double-digit price jumps across regions ahead of a roughly 1 Mt Indian tender, with a price indication about $140/t above June, point to demand-driven repricing in the week to July 27.