OPEC+ ministers on April 27 endorsed the previously agreed plan to lift crude output by a combined 600,000 b/d in May. Ministers will meet again on June 1 to review the decision, and the group is proceeding despite rising coronavirus cases.
The confirmed increase adds supply to the market, which is bearish for crude oil prices. The June 1 review means further changes to supply are possible.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.