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US rice planting is nearly complete, with California emergence about 5% ahead of last year and about one-third of the crop rated poor, though that is early. USDA reports world rough rice prices down 2% over three months, and Brazilian prices are falling, with Brazil needing exports to avoid further declines.
Softer world prices and cheaper Brazilian supply could pressure US rough rice values, while the July WASDE and June acreage report will set new-crop direction.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.