
Highly pathogenic avian influenza has been confirmed in 105 California dairy herds since August, the highest count of any state, with rumors of about 400 more suspected cases. Despite the outbreak cutting milk output potential, US dairy prices trended lower in late September and early October.
Dairy disease outbreaks would normally tighten milk supply, but weak demand for butter and cheese has offset this, so the net effect on dairy feed demand and prices is uncertain.
After 22 past neutral disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.4% to +0.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.