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RBC Global Asset Management's Summer 2021 currency outlook argues the U.S. dollar is in the early stages of a multi-year decline after losing more than 10% in 2020. The authors favour cyclical currencies that will benefit from economic reopening.
They note foreign-exchange traders are watching real rates and term premiums as well as nominal yields.
A weaker U.S. dollar tends to support dollar-denominated commodity prices and lowers import costs for buyers in non-U.S. currencies. The outlook is a forecast rather than a new supply or demand event.
rbcgam.comJun 22, 2021After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
