Fed Surprise May Herald New Era of Asian Currency Weakness

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2025Dollar Boost From Fed to Weigh on Asian Currencies, Analysts Say - Bloomberg+0.4%
• May 30, 2024Asian currencies: Indonesia rupiah hits weakest since early May+0.3%
• Jan 31, 2018Janet Yellen’s Fed Era Ends With Unanimous Vote of No Rate Hike - Bloomberg+0.4%
• Jun 24, 2016U.K.’s EU Exit Roils Currencies From Australia to Russia, Mexico - Bloomberg+1.7%
• Sep 30, 2025Malaysia currency outlook - FurtherAsia+0.1%

After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Jan 9, 2018China Changes the Way It Manages Yuan After Currency's Jump - Bloomberg-0.9%
• Feb 8, 2018China's Yuan Toppled From Two-Year High as Trade Data Surprises - Bloomberg+1.3%
• Jan 17, 2023Indian rupee weakens on yuan-led slide on Asian currencies - Markets - Business Recorder+1.3%
• Jun 17, 2021China’s PBOC Braces for Weaker Yuan as Fed Plans Tapering - Bloomberg+1.2%
• Jun 27, 2016China Weakens Yuan Fixing by Most Since August as Dollar Surges - Bloomberg+0.6%