
Indonesian crude palm oil prices rose nearly 3% in the week to June 27 after falling more than 24% over the previous five weeks. The finance ministry plans to revise export levy rules so levies apply only when prices reach $750 per tonne.
Fitch expects prices to fall again in the second half of 2021 due to abundant output from wet weather linked to La Niña.
A levy trigger at $750 per tonne would reduce the tax burden on exporters at current prices, supporting export flows. Expected output growth from favorable weather points to softer prices later in the year.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.