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Arable Farming's outlook says UK confidence is higher than a year ago, with Grain market consultancy ODA forecasting a UK wheat crop of 14-14.5 million tonnes, about 30% above 2020. It also notes that Paris September 2021 milling wheat futures were trading around £189/t at the start of June.
A much larger UK crop should reduce import needs and bring UK prices down relative to continental levels. This is bearish for UK wheat used in feed and milling.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.