An NDSU crop economist commented on the June WASDE, noting the market watches old-crop and new-crop columns. The U.S. corn crop is forecast near 1.5 billion bushels, close to a record.
The article focuses on pre-report expectations versus the USDA numbers.
A large new-crop corn forecast near record levels is bearish for corn prices if weather stays favorable. Feed buyers should watch whether the crop estimate holds.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.