The EIA reports Henry Hub spot averaged $3.26 per mmBtu in June, the highest summer-month price since 2014. July prices have run higher, averaging $3.67 in the first two weeks.
Tight balances, strong LNG exports, record June heat and western hydro shortfalls all contributed.
A government confirmation of high summer gas costs supports higher natural gas and fertiliser input costs for US feed production. The move is driven by weather and exports rather than a single shock.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.