Oil World cut its 2021 Canadian canola production forecast by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons due to dry Prairie weather and heat up to 35-36C. Saskatchewan soil moisture is largely low or very low, and Canadian canola exports fell to a 21-month low in June.
A forecast 2 Mt drop year-on-year from Canada tightens global rapeseed and canola meal supply, supporting European rapeseed prices and substitution demand for soybean meal.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.