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The July WASDE cut the US cotton abandonment forecast from 20% to 10% and lowered expected average yield by 33 pounds per acre. USDA used planted acreage of 11.72 million acres from the June 30 Acreage report.
Lower abandonment and yield changes tighten the US cotton balance sheet and add two-way price volatility. Cottonseed meal supply tied to cotton crush could shift with the revised crop size.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.