
Market commentary for mid-July notes that the USDA report had no surprises for corn and soybeans. December corn traded at $5.52 and March at $5.59, while September corn was at $5.56, creating an inverse in nearby contracts.
About 25% of the Corn Belt is dry, and the market is waiting for national yield estimates in the August USDA report.
The inverse market signals tight nearby supply, which encourages grain out of storage. Dry weather in a quarter of the Corn Belt keeps the price outlook wide until August yield data.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.