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The US average milk price fell $0.40/cwt in June from May's record to $26.90/cwt. The futures-based milk price forecast for June through December has dropped more than $2/cwt since June 1.
Dairy Margin Coverage margins are not expected to fall below $11/cwt in futures, though USDA's decision tool shows margins near $9.50/cwt for July through November.
Lower forward milk prices and softer retail and food service demand reduce producer margins. The gap between futures and USDA forecasts adds uncertainty about dairy income ahead.
nmpf.orgTheresa SweeneyAug 2, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Aug 2 report of falling milk price and futures forecasts (down over $2/cwt since June 1) reflects the bearish repricing, though it is a lagging summary of the decline.
Futures-based milk price forecasts fell more than $2/cwt since June, reflecting a bearish repricing, though the report is partly backward-looking.
